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CMHC Predicts “Modest Growth” for Ontario Housing Market in 2014

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GTA REAL ESTATE MARKET – The Canadian Mortgage and Housing Cooperation (CMHC)’s Housing Market Outlook for the first quarter of 2013 featured some predictions for the Canadian real estate market, including the market right here in Ontario.

CMHC predicts that over the next two years, Ontario will experience employment growth mirroring that in the US – encouraging homeowners to stay in the province and continue to participate in housing markets like the GTA. Here are some of the most notable trends CMHC foresees for Ontario real estate:

  • Single-detached “starts” – meaning initiating construction on a new home project – will likely continue to grow, reaching 24,600 units in 20143.
  • “Demand from aging baby boomers and more cost conscious first-time homebuyers” will continue to drive multi-family home construction, with 37,500 units predicted to start in 2013 and 38,300 units in 2014.
  • After an anticipated cool-down in 2013, existing home sales are expected to shoot back up again in 2014 – as improving employment conditions allow new first-time buyers to enter the market. The CMAC predicts 201,100 resales in 2014 – nearly 5,000 more than Ontario saw in 2012!

These positive trends for the province’s real estate sector are closely linked to Ontario’s strengthening employment market.

Migration to Canada is expected to continue having a strong positive impact on the GTA’s housing market as well.

“Migration is expected to be supportive of demand for multi-family housing,” the report states. “Ontario and British Columbia’s housing markets will benefit most from international migration over the forecast horizon.”

Continuing immigration will be just one of the factors leading to continually strong home prices in Toronto – CMHC predicts that the average MLS price of a home in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) will increase to $505,200 in 2014 after a slight dip in 2013.

Living Realty agent Annie Li, a GTA real estate sales representative working out of the North Markham Branch, agrees that the local real estate market will continue to be resilient in the coming months.

“I believe this year will be picking up very fast,” Li said in an interview last week. “Last summer, there were a lot of people holding back – they didn’t know where the market was going to go – but now they’re shopping again.”

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